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Thursday, February 24, 2011

SHOULD CHINA APPRECIATE ITS’ CURRENCY?

China unlike India follows a fixed exchange rate system which means that it does not let its currency rate to be decided by the market forces. By keeping it fixed the central bank of China wants to have complete control on its’ currency much like everything else in their country. I think they just hate the concept of freedom! Starting from blocking their citizens to ‘Google’ certain sites to shooting dead families having more than one child, the Communist Party of People’s Republic of China hate to lose their control on anything. Why is USA bothered about this exchange rate policy of China? The answer to this is very simple. China is an export based economy with most of the goods being exported to United States. Thus, what happens is China keeps getting more and more US dollars. So, it should not come as a surprise to anyone when I tell you that China has the largest treasury or foreign reserve in the world which stands at around 3 trillion with Japan coming distant second with a little more than 1 trillion. As the Chinese Yuen does not appreciate their exports never become expensive thus they keep on accumulating USD without letting go anything. But this year the Chinese have a little bit of respite due to their import, export figures for the December period. The imports have shown stronger figures than the exports which have been lower than that was expected. Their current account though is at HUGE surplus still. One might say that the figures of December are nothing but a minor set back for the Chinese rolling capital account. It is enough for now to keep America off their backs for a while.
The advantage of having huge treasury is simple: You can buy out other countries! Well, if you don’t believe me then you should read the report where China and Japan have decided to buy out bonds from Spain and Portugal worth around 6 billion euros. The official report says that China and Japan actually want to show their support and faith in euro denominated countries and they have full faith in their economy. But here is the real truth: Ireland and Greece are sold out to World Bank and IMF
(which are nothing but US friendly bodies) and Spain and Portugal has been bought by China and Japan. You see where I am getting at? Well of course there is no proof of this fact just like there is no proof that Obama is in Pakistan 
But people still believe 9/11 was caused by terrorists and President JFK was shot dead by Henry Oswald.  (Please don’t kill me.)
So, if India wants to buy a country, they need to do the following:
i) Go for fixed exchange rate policy again
ii) Export more to States
So the truth is: CHINA WILL NOT APPRECIATE THEIR CURRENCY because if they do so then they might not have enough money to buy Africa.  Oh!! I forgot it is an economic article!!
So, here is the ECONOMIC REASON why China will not appreciate their currency. As long as China is expert of producing cheapest goods they are going to dominate US consumer market. Why will someone want to let go of competitive advantage? If US is going to sit on large barrels of oil for themselves by invading Iraq then China has every right to sit on large bundles of USD, because guess what? They will later use that USD to buy oil from USA itself. Now, who do you think is smarter?
Chinese or Americans? Well, I have lived close to them for three years and believe me when I say that Chinese are the smartest ones !

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